We see these six factors as likely to have big impacts on business and its regulation in 2021. While fully aware that we do not have all the answers, we have developed a three part Regulatory Stocktake, to make a structured assessment of their impacts on specific business areas.

Continuing impacts of COVID-19

The news of the authorisation and rollout of Coronavirus vaccines could not be more welcome at the end of a grim 2020. But the devastating health effects of the pandemic continue, the economic impacts will be long term, and the regulatory effects are ongoing.

Impacts of Brexit and the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement

On almost any measure, it will be far better to have this agreement in place than to have no agreement. It will allow for tariff and quote free trade in most goods, but will do little for 80% of the UK’s economy that consists of services. It does allow businesses some understanding of the framework for future cooperation, but leaves major divergence over forms of regulation (for example on chemicals), and major differences with the ending of free movement of people, customs checks on goods and an end to free movement of services. Major adjustments are required to many aspects of the economy, and to regulation.

Regulation within the UK

Civil servants have been working on a ‘tsunami’ of regulations in advance of 1 January 2021, and businesses will be at the receiving end of these.

The UK Parliament and Parliaments in each of the UK nations will need to revise their procedures as they emerge from lockdowns and remote working, and to do more to develop an effective voice in holding centralising executives to account. There will be both new regulation, and the need for greatly improves resources within Parliaments to scrutinise it.

Devolution and the Union

2020 brought into sharp focus the full extent of the devolution of powers within the UK, and the enormous strains on the Union imposed by Brexit, from the unique position of Northern Ireland to resentment in Scotland and Wales of the impacts on devolved laws of the UK Internal Market Act 2020. In May 2021 elections to the Scottish Parliament will ensure that the issues of the Union, constitution and Scottish independence are once again near to the top of the political agenda. No business operating in more than one UK jurisdiction can ignore regulatory divergence.

Climate Change, Green Recovery, Energy Transition, Net Zero

National legal commitments to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 are already in place. The UK has now committed in its Nationally Determined Contribution made under the Paris Agreement on Climate Change to a 68% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, and the Committee on Climate Change has made key recommendations in its Sixth Carbon Budget. The EU, after all-night negotiations before the Climate Ambition Summit on 12 December 2020, has committed to 55% reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. November 2021 will see the UK and Italy co-host the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow. The consequences of climate change law, policy and regulation will ripple through the whole economy.

We report on many aspects of climate issues on our separate website and blog at www.COP26andbeyond.com

Public opinion and consumer choice

In much of 2020, public opinion was taken for granted, and much of the public was locked down. COVID-19 has brought with it some signs that the regulatory process was exploring the outer limits of public consent, and that compliance with regulations was fraying around the edges. As the public begins to emerge from lockdowns and restrictions and vaccination programmes begin to allow a return to something more like normal life, 2021 may be the year when the public, and consumers, start to rediscover their voice, and to assert the need to be better consulted.

To discuss the impacts of any of these key factors on your business operations, and how our three part Regulatory Stocktake can help ensure that key regulatory issues are not overlooked, please contact William Wilson, Barrister, at info@wyesideconsulting.com